George Mason University
AES/SCS Statistics Colloquium Series
Seminar Announcement



Evaluation And Optimization Of Population Projections Using Loss Functions

Charles D. Coleman


U.S. Bureau of the Census


ABSTRACT

Loss functions are developed to evaluate cross-sectional population projections. Given a subjective probability distribution of future values, the point projection that minimizes expected total loss is found. The subjective probability distribution can include both risk and Knightian uncertainty: that is, it is defined for events whose probabilities can and cannot be quantified. A one area example is used to illustrate the procedure.


Friday, April 25, 2003
George W. Johnson Center, Assembly Room C
Seminar at 10:45 a.m.
Refreshments at 10:30 a.m.
For the 2003 Spring Seminar Schedule, go to
www.science.gmu.edu/statseminars